Roger, I answered this question yesterday on the following post:
http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/what_is_the_predica…
Although I was a bit sarcastic on the other post, the truth is that we do discuss the future at work all the time. We read as many articles as we could and share information. We very often accurately predict what will happen the next day. Beyond that is always a mystery.
Problem is, that over the past year, market analysts have "flip-flopped" numerous times. For a long time they have been predicting an increase in rates and I would expect one too. That seemes to be the general concensus.
During the months of July and August, rates went up very briefly to almost 6% and we all thought that it was only uphill from there-recovering economy, ect.-but they came right back down.
I think a big key to rates remaining low will be the reaction of first time home-buyers once the $8000 tax credit expires (assuming we don't see another extension) and the effect new and existing home sales would have on the economy.
The problem is that even if we see a drop in home sales, you never know if the government will reintroduce the tax credit to stabilize the housing market, much as the fed would do with rates.
In conclusion, I don't have any prediction. I guess no one really does.
Good luck.
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